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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$109.66

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$452.09

Total Shares452

Combined PnL+$58.4

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,102

Combined PnL-$168.06

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$525.86	$495.59	+$6.03	57% 2260-1719 (3979)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$248.41	$495.59	+$254.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$238.75	—	-$248.52
BL blue.birds	Downavg 63.3¢	$92.22	$122.33	+$46.28	52% 3892-3651 (7543)
BO bosona	Downavg 96¢	$96	$100	+$4	50% 3933-3941 (7874)
AL almach	Downavg 96¢	$96	$100	+$4	47% 705-807 (1512)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 96¢	$96	$100	+$4	46% 708-821 (1529)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 61¢	$56.65	$71.25	+$14.6	37% 662-1125 (1787)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$43.46	$71.25	+$27.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 17¢	$13.19	—	-$13.19
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 6.9¢	$194.04	—	-$155.59	53% 1383-1227 (2610)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 94.7¢	$26.97	$13.48	-$1.07	62% 2249-1386 (3635)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$11.55	$14	+$2.45	47% 761-858 (1619)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.7¢	$4.55	—	-$4.55	48% 760-838 (1598)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 98¢	$3.28	$2	-$1.28	62% 1352-844 (2196)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$2.2	—	-$2.2	46% 1103-1315 (2418)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$1.54	—	-$1.54	47% 1289-1465 (2754)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$2.5	—	-$2.5	55% 1158-945 (2103)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.68	—	-$1.68	67% 1964-988 (2952)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 92¢	$0.27	$0.29	+$0.02	39% 722-1145 (1867)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$525.86

Value

$495.59

PnL

+$6.03

Record

57%

2260-1719 (3979)

Both legs:

Down$248.4150.1¢+$254.55

Up$238.7547.8¢-$248.52

Invested

$92.22

Value

$122.33

PnL

+$46.28

Record

52%

3892-3651 (7543)

Invested

$96

Value

$100

PnL

+$4

Record

50%

3933-3941 (7874)

Invested

$96

Value

$100

PnL

+$4

Record

47%

705-807 (1512)

Invested

$96

Value

$100

PnL

+$4

Record

46%

708-821 (1529)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$56.65

Value

$71.25

PnL

+$14.6

Record

37%

662-1125 (1787)

Both legs:

Down$43.4661¢+$27.79

Up$13.1917¢-$13.19

Invested

$194.04

Value

—

PnL

-$155.59

Record

53%

1383-1227 (2610)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$26.97

Value

$13.48

PnL

-$1.07

Record

62%

2249-1386 (3635)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$11.55

Value

$14

PnL

+$2.45

Record

47%

761-858 (1619)

Invested

$4.55

Value

—

PnL

-$4.55

Record

48%

760-838 (1598)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$3.28

Value

$2

PnL

-$1.28

Record

62%

1352-844 (2196)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

—

PnL

-$2.2

Record

46%

1103-1315 (2418)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

—

PnL

-$1.54

Record

47%

1289-1465 (2754)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

55%

1158-945 (2103)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

—

PnL

-$1.68

Record

67%

1964-988 (2952)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.02

Record

39%

722-1145 (1867)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa7821027...db76b8

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794467400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $122.33

bosona

Down — $100

almach

Down — $100

mo-money

Down — $100

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $13.48

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $14

0x50f7

Up — $0

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