Solana Up or Down - November 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (54%) · Down at 100¢ · $639 held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

Total Value

$639.5

Combined PnL

$3.77

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 100¢

+80% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$621.71

Total Shares624

Combined PnL+$6.69

Up6 traders

Total Value$17.78

Total Shares73

Combined PnL-$2.92

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.6¢	$520.65	$498.26	+$3.11	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$51.48	$44.43	-$7.05	37% 656-1119 (1775)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$31.28	$31.26	+$3.35	52% 3880-3635 (7515)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$17.16	$19.18	+$2.03	60% 2106-1411 (3517)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$10.85	$11.55	+$0.7	47% 753-850 (1603)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 77¢	$7.7	$10	+$2.3	55% 1146-933 (2079)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 34.7¢	$13.44	$9.07	-$4.37	53% 1371-1214 (2585)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 68¢	$4.79	$7.04	+$2.25	37% 757-1285 (2042)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 11.5¢	$1.12	$3.02	+$1.9	67% 1947-979 (2926)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$1.12	$2.89	+$1.77	62% 1338-834 (2172)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$1.08	$2.79	+$1.71	47% 1270-1451 (2721)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$2.4	$0.01	-$2.4	48% 1113-1213 (2326)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$1.54	$0	-$1.54	62% 2224-1373 (3597)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$520.65

Value

$498.26

PnL

+$3.11

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$51.48

Value

$44.43

PnL

-$7.05

Record

37%

656-1119 (1775)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$31.28

Value

$31.26

PnL

+$3.35

Record

52%

3880-3635 (7515)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$17.16

Value

$19.18

PnL

+$2.03

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$10.85

Value

$11.55

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

753-850 (1603)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$7.7

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.3

Record

55%

1146-933 (2079)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$13.44

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$4.37

Record

53%

1371-1214 (2585)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.79

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$2.25

Record

37%

757-1285 (2042)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$1.9

Record

67%

1947-979 (2926)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$1.77

Record

62%

1338-834 (2172)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$1.71

Record

47%

1270-1451 (2721)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.4

Record

48%

1113-1213 (2326)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

PnL

-$1.54

Record

62%

2224-1373 (3597)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.