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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 40%

Total Value

$182.59

Combined PnL

-$502.25

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares613

Combined PnL-$539.69

Down6 traders

Total Value$182.59

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$37.44

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$510.94	—	-$489.13	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 44.3¢	$48.23	$80.73	+$32.5	53% 1371-1214 (2585)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$53.06	$47.26	-$5.8	37% 656-1119 (1775)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 31.2¢	$64.4	—	-$43.74	52% 3880-3635 (7515)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$7.96	$15.34	+$7.38	37% 757-1285 (2042)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 74.7¢	$20.17	$10.71	-$8.9	62% 2224-1373 (3597)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 60.4¢	$13.94	$23.09	+$9.15	51% 1422-1352 (2774)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 43¢	$2.35	$5.47	+$3.12	39% 713-1130 (1843)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$3.7	—	-$3.7	46% 1093-1302 (2395)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$3.12	—	-$3.12	60% 2106-1411 (3517)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$510.94

Value

—

PnL

-$489.13

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

Invested

$48.23

Value

$80.73

PnL

+$32.5

Record

53%

1371-1214 (2585)

Invested

$53.06

Value

$47.26

PnL

-$5.8

Record

37%

656-1119 (1775)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$64.4

Value

—

PnL

-$43.74

Record

52%

3880-3635 (7515)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$7.96

Value

$15.34

PnL

+$7.38

Record

37%

757-1285 (2042)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$20.17

Value

$10.71

PnL

-$8.9

Record

62%

2224-1373 (3597)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$13.94

Value

$23.09

PnL

+$9.15

Record

51%

1422-1352 (2774)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$3.12

Record

39%

713-1130 (1843)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

—

PnL

-$3.7

Record

46%

1093-1302 (2395)

Invested

$3.12

Value

—

PnL

-$3.12

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x52a1aee9...562c5c

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794464100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $80.73

13897651

Down — $47.26

blue.birds

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $15.34

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $10.71

MayorMamdani

Down — $23.09

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $5.47

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

aaa221

Up — $0

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