Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$642.58

Combined PnL

-$64.85

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$147.58

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$7.58

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares207

Combined PnL-$72.43

Down — 31%Up — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$495	-$1.4	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.5	$495	+$248.6
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 67.3¢	$65.06	$63.83	-$1.23	53% 1336-1174 (2510)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 83.2¢	$42.78	$45.5	+$2.72	37% 637-1105 (1742)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$34.86	—	-$34.86	48% 1010-1104 (2114)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 79¢	$19.75	$25	+$5.25	50% 977-986 (1963)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$18.36	—	-$18.36	51% 1582-1533 (3115)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 93.6¢	$12.41	$13.25	+$0.84	62% 2140-1336 (3476)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$1.5	—	-$1.5	47% 1112-1258 (2370)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$1.38	—	-$1.38	47% 738-817 (1555)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$0.56	—	-$0.56	34% 561-1084 (1645)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 23.1¢	$8.65	—	-$8.65	52% 3844-3594 (7438)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 26.3¢	$3.57	—	-$3.57	39% 691-1090 (1781)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6	48% 1088-1178 (2266)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$1.95	—	-$1.95	55% 1115-909 (2024)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$495

PnL

-$1.4

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢-$250

Down$247.550¢+$248.6

Invested

$65.06

Value

$63.83

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

1336-1174 (2510)

Invested

$42.78

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$2.72

Record

37%

637-1105 (1742)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$34.86

Value

—

PnL

-$34.86

Record

48%

1010-1104 (2114)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$19.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

50%

977-986 (1963)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$18.36

Value

—

PnL

-$18.36

Record

51%

1582-1533 (3115)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$12.41

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$0.84

Record

62%

2140-1336 (3476)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.5

Record

47%

1112-1258 (2370)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

—

PnL

-$1.38

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.56

Value

—

PnL

-$0.56

Record

34%

561-1084 (1645)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$8.65

Value

—

PnL

-$8.65

Record

52%

3844-3594 (7438)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.57

Value

—

PnL

-$3.57

Record

39%

691-1090 (1781)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

—

PnL

-$1.6

Record

48%

1088-1178 (2266)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

—

PnL

-$1.95

Record

55%

1115-909 (2024)

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x5618a951...8a7120

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794457200

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $63.83

13897651

Down — $45.5

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $25

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $13.25

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

pspspsps5

Up — $0

Trade on Polymarket