Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$869.49
$6.04
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $512.9 | $497.14 | -$4.76 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $253.68 | — | -$252.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $247.79 | $497.14 | +$248.14 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $149.21 | $131.79 | +$0.06 | 53% 1336-1174 (2510) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 46.9¢ | $68.09 | $76.25 | +$8.16 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $47.65 | $60.9 | +$13.24 | 37% 637-1105 (1742) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 80.5¢ | $35.49 | — | -$35.49 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 91.8¢ | $26.98 | $29.41 | +$2.43 | 47% 738-817 (1555) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $4.41 | $26 | +$21.59 | 39% 691-1090 (1781) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 28.7¢ | $5.75 | $20 | +$14.25 | 55% 1115-909 (2024) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $22.98 | $15.12 | -$7.86 | 51% 1380-1304 (2684) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $8.91 | $9.38 | +$0.47 | 62% 2140-1336 (3476) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.7¢ | $3.72 | — | -$3.72 | 47% 1320-1474 (2794) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.5¢ | $2.51 | — | -$2.51 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 15.7¢ | $0.55 | $3.51 | +$2.96 | 34% 561-1084 (1645) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.6¢ | $3.38 | — | -$3.38 | 46% 1225-1418 (2643) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $2.08 | — | -$2.08 | 67% 1888-951 (2839) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $2.08 | — | -$2.08 | 61% 1295-819 (2114) |
Invested
$512.9
Value
$497.14
PnL
-$4.76
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.21
Value
$131.79
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
1336-1174 (2510)
Invested
$68.09
Value
$76.25
PnL
+$8.16
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$47.65
Value
$60.9
PnL
+$13.24
Record
37%
637-1105 (1742)
Invested
$35.49
Value
—
PnL
-$35.49
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$26.98
Value
$29.41
PnL
+$2.43
Record
47%
738-817 (1555)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.41
Value
$26
PnL
+$21.59
Record
39%
691-1090 (1781)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$20
PnL
+$14.25
Record
55%
1115-909 (2024)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$22.98
Value
$15.12
PnL
-$7.86
Record
51%
1380-1304 (2684)
Invested
$8.91
Value
$9.38
PnL
+$0.47
Record
62%
2140-1336 (3476)
Invested
$3.72
Value
—
PnL
-$3.72
Record
47%
1320-1474 (2794)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.51
Value
—
PnL
-$2.51
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
$3.51
PnL
+$2.96
Record
34%
561-1084 (1645)
Invested
$3.38
Value
—
PnL
-$3.38
Record
46%
1225-1418 (2643)
Invested
$2.08
Value
—
PnL
-$2.08
Record
67%
1888-951 (2839)
Invested
$2.08
Value
—
PnL
-$2.08
Record
61%
1295-819 (2114)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $131.79
blue.birds
Down — $76.25
13897651
Down — $60.9
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $29.41
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $26
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $20
MayorMamdani
Down — $15.12
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $9.38