Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 63%
1 arb excluded
$520.29
-$74.07
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $505.6 | $497.22 | -$6.12 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $254.58 | — | -$254.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $248.61 | $497.22 | +$248.22 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $26.4 | — | -$26.4 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.3¢ | $18.59 | — | -$18.59 | 37% 637-1105 (1742) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $4.5 | $10.48 | +$5.98 | 51% 1380-1304 (2684) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $19.85 | — | -$19.85 | 53% 1336-1174 (2510) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $6.79 | $7.22 | +$0.43 | 62% 2140-1336 (3476) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $2.2 | $5.37 | +$3.17 | 46% 1225-1418 (2643) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 56.8¢ | $16.1 | — | -$16.1 | 34% 561-1084 (1645) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
Invested
$505.6
Value
$497.22
PnL
-$6.12
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.4
Value
—
PnL
-$26.4
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
Invested
$18.59
Value
—
PnL
-$18.59
Record
37%
637-1105 (1742)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$10.48
PnL
+$5.98
Record
51%
1380-1304 (2684)
Invested
$19.85
Value
—
PnL
-$19.85
Record
53%
1336-1174 (2510)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$7.22
PnL
+$0.43
Record
62%
2140-1336 (3476)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$5.37
PnL
+$3.17
Record
46%
1225-1418 (2643)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$16.1
Value
—
PnL
-$16.1
Record
34%
561-1084 (1645)
Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)