Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (45%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $564 held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

Total Value

$563.63

Combined PnL

-$16.62

Smart Money Entry

36.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$500.15

Total Shares712

Combined PnL-$2.86

Down6 traders

Total Value$63.47

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$13.76

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.6¢	$508.03	$496.18	+$0.91	58% 2058-1520 (3578)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 86.4¢	$36.34	$23.63	-$12.71	37% 628-1091 (1719)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 96¢	$24.77	$23.34	-$1.43	53% 1273-1127 (2400)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 81¢	$5.4	$5.43	+$0.03	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.63	+$0.03	39% 676-1067 (1743)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 92¢	$3.68	$4	+$0.32	62% 2042-1276 (3318)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$2.45	$2.45	+$0	48% 998-1097 (2095)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.9¢	$5.94	$2.27	-$3.68	47% 629-703 (1332)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.8	$0.8	+$0	44% 1012-1265 (2277)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.74	$0.62	-$0.12	34% 554-1063 (1617)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$0.26	$0.29	+$0.03	52% 3819-3574 (7393)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$508.03

Value

$496.18

PnL

+$0.91

Record

58%

2058-1520 (3578)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$36.34

Value

$23.63

PnL

-$12.71

Record

37%

628-1091 (1719)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$24.77

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$1.43

Record

53%

1273-1127 (2400)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

676-1067 (1743)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$3.68

Value

PnL

+$0.32

Record

62%

2042-1276 (3318)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

998-1097 (2095)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$3.68

Record

47%

629-703 (1332)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

1012-1265 (2277)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.12

Record

34%

554-1063 (1617)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

3819-3574 (7393)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.