Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$174.45
-$12.38
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $67.49 | $72.34 | +$4.85 | 37% 628-1091 (1719) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 5¢ | $5.99 | — | -$5.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85¢ | $61.5 | $72.34 | +$10.84 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $65.91 | $83.82 | +$17.91 | 53% 1273-1127 (2400) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.5¢ | $24 | — | -$24 | 50% 3891-3897 (7788) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.6¢ | $1.27 | — | -$1.27 | 34% 554-1063 (1617) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.1¢ | $3.12 | — | -$3.12 | 39% 676-1067 (1743) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 84.5¢ | $16.9 | $10 | +$3 | 58% 2058-1520 (3578) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 83.9¢ | $6.08 | $7.25 | +$1.17 | — |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $1.61 | — | -$1.61 | 50% 149-151 (300) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $3.44 | $1.05 | +$0.1 | 62% 2042-1276 (3318) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 16.5¢ | $4.55 | — | -$4.55 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
Invested
$67.49
Value
$72.34
PnL
+$4.85
Record
37%
628-1091 (1719)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.91
Value
$83.82
PnL
+$17.91
Record
53%
1273-1127 (2400)
Invested
$24
Value
—
PnL
-$24
Record
50%
3891-3897 (7788)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.27
Value
—
PnL
-$1.27
Record
34%
554-1063 (1617)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.12
Value
—
PnL
-$3.12
Record
39%
676-1067 (1743)
Invested
$16.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$3
Record
58%
2058-1520 (3578)
Invested
$6.08
Value
$7.25
PnL
+$1.17
Record
—
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$1.61
Value
—
PnL
-$1.61
Record
50%
149-151 (300)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.1
Record
62%
2042-1276 (3318)
Invested
$4.55
Value
—
PnL
-$4.55
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)