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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 71%

Total Value

$48.57

Combined PnL

-$77.51

Smart Money Signal

Up

11 of 15 top traders (73%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares259

Combined PnL-$93.47

Down4 traders

Total Value$48.57

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$15.96

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$28.44	—	-$28.44	36% 617-1088 (1705)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 97¢	$24.48	$25.24	+$0.76	34% 549-1045 (1594)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 33.3¢	$5.35	$16.05	+$10.7	39% 666-1044 (1710)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 81.7¢	$21.88	—	-$21.88	53% 1258-1114 (2372)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 20¢	$1.05	$5.25	+$4.2	58% 2028-1497 (3525)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 83¢	$4.15	—	-$4.15	44% 990-1249 (2239)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85¢	$1.72	$2.02	+$0.3	62% 2020-1262 (3282)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$1.51	—	-$1.51	49% 767-785 (1552)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	50% 1317-1303 (2620)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.7¢	$2.5	—	-$2.5	47% 619-701 (1320)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$0.29	—	-$0.29	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 709-1165 (1874)
BA 0xba67...4727CTR<$100	Upavg 83¢	$14.41	—	-$14.41	—
42 0x424e...263bCTR<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$12.45	—	-$12.45	—
1B 0x1b41...0b56CTR<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$6	—	-$6	—

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$28.44

Value

—

PnL

-$28.44

Record

36%

617-1088 (1705)

Invested

$24.48

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$0.76

Record

34%

549-1045 (1594)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$5.35

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$10.7

Record

39%

666-1044 (1710)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$21.88

Value

—

PnL

-$21.88

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

ByteBadger92<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$4.2

Record

58%

2028-1497 (3525)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

—

PnL

-$4.15

Record

44%

990-1249 (2239)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.72

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.3

Record

62%

2020-1262 (3282)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$1.51

Value

—

PnL

-$1.51

Record

49%

767-785 (1552)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

50%

1317-1303 (2620)

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

47%

619-701 (1320)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$0.29

Value

—

PnL

-$0.29

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

709-1165 (1874)

0xba67...4727CTR<$100

Invested

$14.41

Value

—

PnL

-$14.41

Record

—

0x424e...263bCTR<$100

Invested

$12.45

Value

—

PnL

-$12.45

Record

—

0x1b41...0b56CTR<$100

Invested

$6

Value

—

PnL

-$6

Record

—

Smart Money Signal

Up

11 of 15 top traders (73%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb78c6a4b...9cda4b

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794450000

Traders in this Market

13897651

Up — $0

pspspsps5

Down — $25.24

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $16.05

ply-pm2

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $5.25

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $2.02

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

0x50f7

Up — $0

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