Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Down 59%
$203.04
-$94.51
Smart Money Signal
10 of 17 top traders (59%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birds | Upavg 45.3¢ | $82.37 | $108.04 | +$32.17 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $83.4 | — | -$83.4 | 36% 617-1088 (1705) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $51.1 | $47.36 | -$3.74 | 49% 3495-3600 (7095) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 39.1¢ | $14.57 | — | -$14.57 | 53% 1258-1114 (2372) |
1B 0x1b41...0b56<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $5.95 | $10.83 | +$4.88 | — |
F8 0xf8af...54c6<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $10 | +$2.6 | — |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 70.3¢ | $16.11 | $10.09 | -$3.09 | 62% 2020-1262 (3282) |
5D 0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $11.29 | — | -$6.8 | — |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $13 | — | -$13 | 73% 753-272 (1025) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $2.17 | — | -$2.17 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $15.6 | $10 | +$0.4 | 58% 2028-1497 (3525) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $4.77 | — | -$4.77 | 38% 709-1165 (1874) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $2.62 | $6.72 | +$4.1 | 38% 459-750 (1209) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $1.85 | — | -$1.85 | 61% 1240-802 (2042) |
42 0x424e...263bCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $3.1 | — | -$3.1 | — |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $0.27 | — | -$0.27 | 49% 767-785 (1552) |
Invested
$82.37
Value
$108.04
PnL
+$32.17
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$83.4
Value
—
PnL
-$83.4
Record
36%
617-1088 (1705)
Invested
$51.1
Value
$47.36
PnL
-$3.74
Record
49%
3495-3600 (7095)
Invested
$14.57
Value
—
PnL
-$14.57
Record
53%
1258-1114 (2372)
Invested
$5.95
Value
$10.83
PnL
+$4.88
Record
—
Invested
$7.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.6
Record
—
Invested
$16.11
Value
$10.09
PnL
-$3.09
Record
62%
2020-1262 (3282)
Invested
$11.29
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
—
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$13
Value
—
PnL
-$13
Record
73%
753-272 (1025)
Invested
$2.17
Value
—
PnL
-$2.17
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.4
Record
58%
2028-1497 (3525)
Invested
$4.77
Value
—
PnL
-$4.77
Record
38%
709-1165 (1874)
Invested
$2.62
Value
$6.72
PnL
+$4.1
Record
38%
459-750 (1209)
Invested
$1.85
Value
—
PnL
-$1.85
Record
61%
1240-802 (2042)
Invested
$3.1
Value
—
PnL
-$3.1
Record
—
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Invested
$0.27
Value
—
PnL
-$0.27
Record
49%
767-785 (1552)