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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$229.49

Combined PnL

-$41.29

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$157.58

Total Shares158

Combined PnL-$5.75

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$35.55

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 80¢	$70.07	$71.91	+$1.84	36% 617-1088 (1705)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80¢	$57.54	$71.91	+$14.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 10.1¢	$12.53	—	-$12.53
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 74.1¢	$94.36	$86.75	+$3.08	52% 3801-3556 (7357)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$41.67	$34.15	-$7.52	49% 3495-3600 (7095)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 86¢	$30.99	$25.43	-$5.56	53% 1258-1114 (2372)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 82.3¢	$8.24	$6.25	-$0.44	62% 2020-1262 (3282)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 18.5¢	$3.18	—	-$3.18	34% 549-1045 (1594)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$21.35	$5	+$4.7	58% 2028-1497 (3525)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 9.4¢	$1.36	—	-$1.36	61% 1240-802 (2042)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$1.28	—	-$1.28	66% 1776-921 (2697)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$2.6	—	-$2.6	39% 666-1044 (1710)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 22.5¢	$26.88	—	-$26.88	49% 767-785 (1552)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$0.25	—	-$0.25	48% 1014-1081 (2095)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$70.07

Value

$71.91

PnL

+$1.84

Record

36%

617-1088 (1705)

Both legs:

Down$57.5480¢+$14.37

Up$12.5310.1¢-$12.53

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$94.36

Value

$86.75

PnL

+$3.08

Record

52%

3801-3556 (7357)

Invested

$41.67

Value

$34.15

PnL

-$7.52

Record

49%

3495-3600 (7095)

Invested

$30.99

Value

$25.43

PnL

-$5.56

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.24

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$0.44

Record

62%

2020-1262 (3282)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$3.18

Value

—

PnL

-$3.18

Record

34%

549-1045 (1594)

ByteBadger92<$100

Invested

$21.35

Value

$5

PnL

+$4.7

Record

58%

2028-1497 (3525)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.36

Value

—

PnL

-$1.36

Record

61%

1240-802 (2042)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.28

Value

—

PnL

-$1.28

Record

66%

1776-921 (2697)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

—

PnL

-$2.6

Record

39%

666-1044 (1710)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$26.88

Value

—

PnL

-$26.88

Record

49%

767-785 (1552)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

—

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

1014-1081 (2095)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x69a36e2f...e1c6c2

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794447300

Traders in this Market

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $86.75

asdcaxz

Down — $34.15

ply-pm2

Down — $25.43

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $6.25

pspspsps5

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $5

asidjasiodja

Up — $0

asdaefef

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

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