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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$140.94

Combined PnL

-$246.04

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares222
Combined PnL-$262.7
Down3 traders
Total Value$23.67
Total Shares24
Combined PnL+$16.66
Up — 70%Down — 30%
PL
ply-pm2CTR
Up

Invested

$120.91

Value

—

PnL

-$120.91

Record

53%

1226-1085 (2311)

13
13897651ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$95.2

Value

$117.27

PnL

+$22.08

Record

36%

597-1076 (1673)

Both legs:

Down$31.4326.8¢+$85.84
Up$63.7670.5¢-$63.76
AS
asdcaxzCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$78.32

Value

—

PnL

-$74.22

Record

49%

3456-3566 (7022)

BL
blue.birdsCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$28.97

Value

—

PnL

-$28.97

Record

52%

3766-3522 (7288)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$30.25

Value

—

PnL

-$30.25

Record

50%

1269-1265 (2534)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.91

Value

—

PnL

-$6.11

Record

38%

697-1139 (1836)

ohioism<$100
Down

Invested

$1.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$8.6

Record

48%

980-1048 (2028)

G-Penis-Monster<$100
Down

Invested

$3.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.6

Record

44%

955-1216 (2171)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.1

Value

—

PnL

-$2.1

Record

40%

649-994 (1643)

BY
ByteBadger92<$100
Down

Invested

$21.45

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$1.46

Record

58%

1973-1454 (3427)

PB
PBot-5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.13

Value

—

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

583-642 (1225)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xba1fb172...189df4
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1794443100

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Up — $0

-$120.91
13

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$22.08
AS

asdcaxz

CTR

Up — $0

-$74.22
BL

blue.birds

CTR

Up — $0

-$28.97
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$30.25
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Up — $0

-$6.11

ohioism

Down — $10

+$8.6

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $10

+$6.6

OhioRiskManagement

CTR

Up — $0

-$2.1
BY

ByteBadger92

Down — $3.67

+$1.46
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