Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (63%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $155 held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

Total Value

$155.18

Combined PnL

-$25.01

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$132.03

Total Shares137

Combined PnL-$12.92

Down5 traders

Total Value$23.16

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$12.09

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 88.9¢	$56.34	$63.37	+$7.03	37% 435-728 (1163)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 88.9¢	$72.5	$53.56	-$18.94	36% 589-1068 (1657)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$16.1	$15.09	-$1.01	49% 3432-3549 (6981)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$7.41	$10.45	+$3.04	53% 1206-1070 (2276)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 10.8¢	$7.79	$5.43	-$2.36	35% 531-973 (1504)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	58% 1948-1427 (3375)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 12.6¢	$5.7	$2.26	-$3.44	49% 706-726 (1432)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 18.3¢	$9.65	$0.03	-$9.62	40% 643-968 (1611)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$56.34

Value

$63.37

PnL

+$7.03

Record

37%

435-728 (1163)

13897651<$100

Invested

$72.5

Value

$53.56

PnL

-$18.94

Record

36%

589-1068 (1657)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$16.1

Value

$15.09

PnL

-$1.01

Record

49%

3432-3549 (6981)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.41

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$3.04

Record

53%

1206-1070 (2276)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.79

Value

$5.43

PnL

-$2.36

Record

35%

531-973 (1504)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.7

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$3.44

Record

49%

706-726 (1432)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.65

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$9.62

Record

40%

643-968 (1611)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.