Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$202.64
-$77.79
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 75.5¢ | $73.19 | $70.07 | +$0.98 | 49% 3410-3533 (6943) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $63.09 | $81.82 | +$18.72 | 35% 579-1062 (1641) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.1¢ | $45.89 | $81.82 | +$35.93 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34¢ | $17.2 | — | -$17.2 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 90.2¢ | $43.05 | $35.05 | -$8 | 52% 3722-3489 (7211) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 22.3¢ | $60.73 | — | -$55.78 | 53% 1194-1050 (2244) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $8 | $10 | +$2 | 49% 683-704 (1387) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $5.4 | — | -$5.4 | 44% 932-1181 (2113) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $4.08 | — | -$4.08 | 35% 522-960 (1482) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 9¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 74% 712-248 (960) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 62.2¢ | $3.55 | $5.7 | +$2.15 | 61% 1965-1241 (3206) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.6¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 40% 634-948 (1582) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.8¢ | $12.34 | — | +$0.58 | 58% 1912-1406 (3318) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $4.83 | — | -$4.83 | 38% 680-1107 (1787) |
Invested
$73.19
Value
$70.07
PnL
+$0.98
Record
49%
3410-3533 (6943)
Invested
$63.09
Value
$81.82
PnL
+$18.72
Record
35%
579-1062 (1641)
Both legs:
Invested
$43.05
Value
$35.05
PnL
-$8
Record
52%
3722-3489 (7211)
Invested
$60.73
Value
—
PnL
-$55.78
Record
53%
1194-1050 (2244)
Invested
$8
Value
$10
PnL
+$2
Record
49%
683-704 (1387)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$5.4
Value
—
PnL
-$5.4
Record
44%
932-1181 (2113)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.08
Value
—
PnL
-$4.08
Record
35%
522-960 (1482)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
74%
712-248 (960)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$2.15
Record
61%
1965-1241 (3206)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
40%
634-948 (1582)
Invested
$12.34
Value
—
PnL
+$0.58
Record
58%
1912-1406 (3318)
Invested
$4.83
Value
—
PnL
-$4.83
Record
38%
680-1107 (1787)