Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Up 56%
1 arb excluded
$272.64
-$20.62
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birds | Downavg 55.3¢ | $127.06 | $126.25 | -$0.81 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $60.6 | $69.48 | +$8.89 | 33% 469-955 (1424) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.7¢ | $59.68 | $51.22 | -$8.47 | 53% 931-840 (1771) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.7¢ | $31.11 | $51.22 | +$20.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.1¢ | $28.57 | — | -$28.57 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.9¢ | $24.6 | — | -$24.6 | 49% 3158-3267 (6425) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $16.5 | $18.23 | +$1.74 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $4.92 | $7.46 | +$2.54 | 39% 547-873 (1420) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $12.43 | — | -$2.23 | 58% 1473-1061 (2534) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $3.3 | — | -$3.3 | 48% 745-806 (1551) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.45 | — | -$1.45 | 60% 971-647 (1618) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 65% 1384-737 (2121) |
Invested
$127.06
Value
$126.25
PnL
-$0.81
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$60.6
Value
$69.48
PnL
+$8.89
Record
33%
469-955 (1424)
Invested
$59.68
Value
$51.22
PnL
-$8.47
Record
53%
931-840 (1771)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.6
Value
—
PnL
-$24.6
Record
49%
3158-3267 (6425)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$18.23
PnL
+$1.74
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$7.46
PnL
+$2.54
Record
39%
547-873 (1420)
Invested
$12.43
Value
—
PnL
-$2.23
Record
58%
1473-1061 (2534)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
-$3.3
Record
48%
745-806 (1551)
Invested
$1.45
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
60%
971-647 (1618)
Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
65%
1384-737 (2121)