Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 100%
2 arb excluded
$281.81
$37.96
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $78.94 | $75.25 | -$3.69 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.3¢ | $31.7 | — | -$31.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.8¢ | $47.24 | $75.25 | +$28.01 | |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.3¢ | $64.26 | $66.06 | +$1.81 | 33% 452-936 (1388) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.3¢ | $38.52 | $66.06 | +$27.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.8¢ | $25.74 | — | -$25.74 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 60.8¢ | $50.81 | $74.14 | +$23.33 | 53% 897-807 (1704) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $39.7 | $35 | +$4.3 | 49% 3117-3227 (6344) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $13.88 | $15.17 | +$5.85 | 39% 529-840 (1369) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $8.38 | $9.53 | +$1.27 | 62% 1526-942 (2468) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.59 | $6.66 | +$0.07 | 98% 1426-30 (1456) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.9¢ | $17.19 | — | +$3.16 | 58% 1420-1016 (2436) |
Invested
$78.94
Value
$75.25
PnL
-$3.69
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.26
Value
$66.06
PnL
+$1.81
Record
33%
452-936 (1388)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.81
Value
$74.14
PnL
+$23.33
Record
53%
897-807 (1704)
Invested
$39.7
Value
$35
PnL
+$4.3
Record
49%
3117-3227 (6344)
Invested
$13.88
Value
$15.17
PnL
+$5.85
Record
39%
529-840 (1369)
Invested
$8.38
Value
$9.53
PnL
+$1.27
Record
62%
1526-942 (2468)
Invested
$6.59
Value
$6.66
PnL
+$0.07
Record
98%
1426-30 (1456)
Invested
$17.19
Value
—
PnL
+$3.16
Record
58%
1420-1016 (2436)