Solana Up or Down - November 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (82%) · Up at 100¢ · $168 held · ended Nov 10

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

Total Value

$167.63

Combined PnL

-$1.89

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$167.39

Total Shares178

Combined PnL-$1.01

Down2 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$0.88

Up — 82%Down — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 91.1¢	$76.09	$72.65	-$3.44	30% 364-865 (1229)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 81.5¢	$39.77	$37.05	-$2.72	53% 760-675 (1435)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$22.54	$22.89	+$0.35	98% 1174-26 (1200)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 57¢	$10.5	$14.04	+$3.53	53% 739-648 (1387)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 52.4¢	$8.1	$7.89	-$0.21	49% 586-622 (1208)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$13.8	$4.88	+$2.11	49% 2927-3042 (5969)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 53.1¢	$4.5	$4.32	-$0.18	38% 432-691 (1123)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 53¢	$2.8	$2.69	-$0.11	37% 296-504 (800)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 67¢	$1.34	$1	-$0.34	61% 1214-784 (1998)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.43	$0.21	-$0.21	35% 277-519 (796)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.69	$0.02	-$0.67	52% 3251-3011 (6262)

13897651<$100

Invested

$76.09

Value

$72.65

PnL

-$3.44

Record

30%

364-865 (1229)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$39.77

Value

$37.05

PnL

-$2.72

Record

53%

760-675 (1435)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$22.54

Value

$22.89

PnL

+$0.35

Record

98%

1174-26 (1200)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$3.53

Record

53%

739-648 (1387)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$7.89

PnL

-$0.21

Record

49%

586-622 (1208)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$2.11

Record

49%

2927-3042 (5969)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

432-691 (1123)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$0.11

Record

37%

296-504 (800)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

PnL

-$0.34

Record

61%

1214-784 (1998)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.21

Record

35%

277-519 (796)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.67

Record

52%

3251-3011 (6262)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.