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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Up 56%

Total Value

$213.91

Combined PnL

-$200.01

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 16 top traders (56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$213.91

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$16.73

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares299

Combined PnL-$216.74

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$97.8	$85.93	-$11.87	29% 345-852 (1197)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 64¢	$117.3	—	-$117.3	52% 690-629 (1319)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$60.65	—	-$60.65	52% 3206-2981 (6187)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$47.52	$48	+$0.48	98% 1113-24 (1137)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 99¢	$31.22	$31.54	+$0.32	43% 533-713 (1246)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 44.2¢	$24.88	—	-$24.88	49% 2888-3006 (5894)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 42.5¢	$8.5	$20	+$11.5	46% 537-642 (1179)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 77¢	$7.7	$10	+$2.3	58% 1054-768 (1822)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 26.2¢	$3.2	$12.22	+$9.02	53% 699-627 (1326)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 20¢	$1.24	$6.22	+$4.98	44% 550-695 (1245)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$10.04	—	-$2.48	38% 277-461 (738)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$12.37	—	-$2.51	61% 1159-747 (1906)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 415-663 (1078)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$2.55	—	-$2.55	48% 559-599 (1158)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$3.48	—	-$3.48	58% 719-528 (1247)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$2.85	—	-$2.85	65% 1039-555 (1594)

Invested

$97.8

Value

$85.93

PnL

-$11.87

Record

29%

345-852 (1197)

Invested

$117.3

Value

—

PnL

-$117.3

Record

52%

690-629 (1319)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$60.65

Value

—

PnL

-$60.65

Record

52%

3206-2981 (6187)

Invested

$47.52

Value

$48

PnL

+$0.48

Record

98%

1113-24 (1137)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$31.22

Value

$31.54

PnL

+$0.32

Record

43%

533-713 (1246)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$24.88

Value

—

PnL

-$24.88

Record

49%

2888-3006 (5894)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$20

PnL

+$11.5

Record

46%

537-642 (1179)

ByteBadger92<$100

Invested

$7.7

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.3

Record

58%

1054-768 (1822)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$12.22

PnL

+$9.02

Record

53%

699-627 (1326)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

$6.22

PnL

+$4.98

Record

44%

550-695 (1245)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$10.04

Value

—

PnL

-$2.48

Record

38%

277-461 (738)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$12.37

Value

—

PnL

-$2.51

Record

61%

1159-747 (1906)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

415-663 (1078)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

—

PnL

-$2.55

Record

48%

559-599 (1158)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$3.48

Value

—

PnL

-$3.48

Record

58%

719-528 (1247)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

—

PnL

-$2.85

Record

65%

1039-555 (1594)

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 16 top traders (56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbccdd17a...4568e6

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794332700

Traders in this Market

13897651

Down — $85.93

ply-pm2

Up — $0

blue.birds

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $48

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $31.54

asdcaxz

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $20

ByteBadger92

Down — $10

MayorMamdani

Down — $12.22

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $6.22

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