Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Up 36%
2 arb excluded
$560.81
-$543.97
Smart Money Signal
5 of 14 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 49.1¢ | $234.7 | — | -$227.3 | 52% 3094-2872 (5966) |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 39¢ | $356.88 | — | -$356.88 | 53% 597-530 (1127) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 58.4¢ | $138.25 | $122.75 | -$11.5 | 53% 635-552 (1187) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $125.06 | $109.13 | -$15.93 | 27% 304-803 (1107) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.5¢ | $59.57 | — | -$59.57 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60¢ | $65.49 | $109.13 | +$43.64 | |
AL almach | Downavg 73¢ | $73 | $100 | +$27 | 40% 267-404 (671) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $73 | $99.99 | +$27 | 39% 265-413 (678) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 34.4¢ | $37.7 | $66.93 | +$29.23 | 49% 2783-2896 (5679) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.7¢ | $14.7 | — | -$14.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.4¢ | $23 | $66.93 | +$43.93 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 71.2¢ | $19.58 | $19.07 | +$3.61 | 61% 992-638 (1630) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $8.5 | $12.89 | +$4.39 | 38% 357-573 (930) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $20.2 | $10.13 | -$7.64 | 52% 599-542 (1141) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $6.2 | — | -$6.2 | 44% 454-583 (1037) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $4.16 | $9.39 | +$5.23 | 57% 625-480 (1105) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $4.29 | $8.3 | +$4.01 | 65% 895-482 (1377) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $5.1 | — | -$5.1 | 41% 438-624 (1062) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $1.63 | $2.23 | +$0.6 | 50% 3498-3542 (7040) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.19 | — | -$1.19 | 49% 467-490 (957) |
Invested
$234.7
Value
—
PnL
-$227.3
Record
52%
3094-2872 (5966)
Invested
$356.88
Value
—
PnL
-$356.88
Record
53%
597-530 (1127)
Invested
$138.25
Value
$122.75
PnL
-$11.5
Record
53%
635-552 (1187)
Invested
$125.06
Value
$109.13
PnL
-$15.93
Record
27%
304-803 (1107)
Both legs:
Invested
$73
Value
$100
PnL
+$27
Record
40%
267-404 (671)
Invested
$73
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$27
Record
39%
265-413 (678)
Invested
$37.7
Value
$66.93
PnL
+$29.23
Record
49%
2783-2896 (5679)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.58
Value
$19.07
PnL
+$3.61
Record
61%
992-638 (1630)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$12.89
PnL
+$4.39
Record
38%
357-573 (930)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$20.2
Value
$10.13
PnL
-$7.64
Record
52%
599-542 (1141)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$6.2
Value
—
PnL
-$6.2
Record
44%
454-583 (1037)
Invested
$4.16
Value
$9.39
PnL
+$5.23
Record
57%
625-480 (1105)
Invested
$4.29
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$4.01
Record
65%
895-482 (1377)
Invested
$5.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.1
Record
41%
438-624 (1062)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
3498-3542 (7040)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
—
PnL
-$1.19
Record
49%
467-490 (957)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $122.75
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Down — $100
mo-money
Down — $99.99
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $19.07
antsaslyku
Down — $12.89
MayorMamdani
Down — $10.13