Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
13
Down 69%
1 arb excluded
$160.28
-$65.27
Smart Money Signal
9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 61.3Β’ | $55.8 | $45.82 | -$9.98 | 49% 2767-2874 (5641) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 61.3Β’ | $35.8 | β | -$35.8 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 43.6Β’ | $20 | $45.82 | +$25.82 | |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 66.3Β’ | $52.39 | $60.64 | +$8.25 | 27% 298-793 (1091) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.5Β’ | $51.44 | β | -$22.31 | 52% 3079-2848 (5927) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 16.3Β’ | $4.56 | $28 | +$23.44 | 37% 212-358 (570) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 51Β’ | $26.84 | β | -$26.84 | 53% 578-516 (1094) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 64Β’ | $21.7 | β | -$21.7 | 37% 216-370 (586) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 36.9Β’ | $4.73 | $12.82 | +$8.09 | 38% 352-563 (915) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 83.6Β’ | $16.27 | $13 | -$3.26 | 61% 962-618 (1580) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Downavg 38.7Β’ | $11.85 | β | +$3.12 | 57% 822-611 (1433) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 14Β’ | $1.4 | β | -$1.4 | 44% 444-557 (1001) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 16Β’ | $1.6 | β | -$1.6 | 48% 444-473 (917) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 81Β’ | $4.26 | β | -$4.26 | 49% 439-452 (891) |
![]() BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 88Β’ | $22 | β | -$22 | 79% 348-93 (441) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 41.5Β’ | $4.8 | β | -$4.8 | 53% 584-522 (1106) |
Invested
$55.8
Value
$45.82
PnL
-$9.98
Record
49%
2767-2874 (5641)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.39
Value
$60.64
PnL
+$8.25
Record
27%
298-793 (1091)
Invested
$51.44
Value
β
PnL
-$22.31
Record
52%
3079-2848 (5927)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.56
Value
$28
PnL
+$23.44
Record
37%
212-358 (570)
Invested
$26.84
Value
β
PnL
-$26.84
Record
53%
578-516 (1094)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$21.7
Value
β
PnL
-$21.7
Record
37%
216-370 (586)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$12.82
PnL
+$8.09
Record
38%
352-563 (915)
Invested
$16.27
Value
$13
PnL
-$3.26
Record
61%
962-618 (1580)
Invested
$11.85
Value
β
PnL
+$3.12
Record
57%
822-611 (1433)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
β
PnL
-$1.4
Record
44%
444-557 (1001)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
β
PnL
-$1.6
Record
48%
444-473 (917)
Invested
$4.26
Value
β
PnL
-$4.26
Record
49%
439-452 (891)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$22
Value
β
PnL
-$22
Record
79%
348-93 (441)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
β
PnL
-$4.8
Record
53%
584-522 (1106)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage β excluded
13897651
Up β $60.64
blue.birds
CTRDown β $0

OhioRiskManagement
Up β $28
ply-pm2
CTRDown β $0

pspspsps5
CTRDown β $0
antsaslyku
Up β $12.82
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $13
ByteBadger92
CTRDown β $0

G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown β $0