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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 71%

Total Value

$516.92

Combined PnL

-$74.33

Smart Money Signal

Up

11 of 15 top traders (73%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$516.92

Total Shares517

Combined PnL+$312.32

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares432

Combined PnL-$386.65

Down — 27%Up — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 27.4¢	$116.83	$339.6	+$222.77	51% 10642-10092 (20734)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 72.9¢	$101.47	—	-$101.47	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
HO hoodquantCTR<$100	Upavg 99.1¢	$85.19	—	-$85.19	89% 29489-3558 (33047)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 71.9¢	$51.98	—	-$51.98	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$28.78	—	-$28.78	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$27.02	—	-$27.02	65% 114692-61718 (176410)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 99.1¢	$36.66	$37	+$0.34	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$22.23	—	-$22.23	56% 8889-6954 (15843)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$22.36	—	-$22.36	61% 98731-62694 (161425)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 76¢	$19.83	—	-$19.83	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
pspspsps5	Downavg 26.1¢	$41.42	$122.13	+$80.71	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 23¢	$10.34	$18.19	+$8.5	65% 130448-70263 (200711)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 98.1¢	$4.25	—	-$4.25	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$0.13	—	-$0.13	52% 12378-11428 (23806)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 75.5¢	$23.42	—	-$23.42	49% 10666-11322 (21988)

Invested

$116.83

Value

$339.6

PnL

+$222.77

Record

51%

10642-10092 (20734)

Invested

$101.47

Value

—

PnL

-$101.47

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

hoodquantCTR<$100

Invested

$85.19

Value

—

PnL

-$85.19

Record

89%

29489-3558 (33047)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$51.98

Value

—

PnL

-$51.98

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$28.78

Value

—

PnL

-$28.78

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$27.02

Value

—

PnL

-$27.02

Record

65%

114692-61718 (176410)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$36.66

Value

$37

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$22.23

Value

—

PnL

-$22.23

Record

56%

8889-6954 (15843)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$22.36

Value

—

PnL

-$22.36

Record

61%

98731-62694 (161425)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$19.83

Value

—

PnL

-$19.83

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

Invested

$41.42

Value

$122.13

PnL

+$80.71

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$10.34

Value

$18.19

PnL

+$8.5

Record

65%

130448-70263 (200711)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

—

PnL

-$4.25

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

Invested

$0.13

Value

—

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

12378-11428 (23806)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$23.42

Value

—

PnL

-$23.42

Record

49%

10666-11322 (21988)

Smart Money Signal

Up

11 of 15 top traders (73%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa80e9be4...9ecf3e

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794038400

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Down — $339.6

asdcaxz

Up — $0

hoodquant

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

blue.birds

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $37

13897651

Up — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $0

asdaefef

Up — $0

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