Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Up 50%
$135.6
-$113.2
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 80.2¢ | $53.97 | — | -$52.65 | 65% 128717-68964 (197681) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $53.23 | $54 | +$0.77 | 49% 79789-83251 (163040) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 58.9¢ | $40.25 | — | -$40.25 | 51% 9566-9156 (18722) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 68.2¢ | $43.21 | — | -$43.21 | 56% 7911-6145 (14056) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.6¢ | $28.91 | — | -$28.91 | 51% 11049-10545 (21594) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 25.1¢ | $9.87 | $39.31 | +$29.44 | 48% 9790-10702 (20492) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $5.25 | $25 | +$19.75 | 57% 76504-58856 (135360) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 29.8¢ | $3.36 | $11.29 | +$7.93 | 55% 50608-42054 (92662) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 95.3¢ | $5.72 | $6 | +$0.28 | 66% 129245-66642 (195887) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.1¢ | $6.36 | — | -$6.36 | 48% 5542-5979 (11521) |
Invested
$53.97
Value
—
PnL
-$52.65
Record
65%
128717-68964 (197681)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$53.23
Value
$54
PnL
+$0.77
Record
49%
79789-83251 (163040)
Invested
$40.25
Value
—
PnL
-$40.25
Record
51%
9566-9156 (18722)
Invested
$43.21
Value
—
PnL
-$43.21
Record
56%
7911-6145 (14056)
Invested
$28.91
Value
—
PnL
-$28.91
Record
51%
11049-10545 (21594)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$9.87
Value
$39.31
PnL
+$29.44
Record
48%
9790-10702 (20492)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$19.75
Record
57%
76504-58856 (135360)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.36
Value
$11.29
PnL
+$7.93
Record
55%
50608-42054 (92662)
Invested
$5.72
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.28
Record
66%
129245-66642 (195887)
Invested
$6.36
Value
—
PnL
-$6.36
Record
48%
5542-5979 (11521)