Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (51%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Solana Up or Down - November 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 50¢ · $127 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Down
6
Down 67%
$127.45
$2.75
Research grade
NeutralDown at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 22.2¢ | $23.96 | $40.45 | +$16.49 | 49% 79620-83009 (162629) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $47.06 | $36.02 | -$11.05 | 56% 7744-6020 (13764) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 87.8¢ | $31.37 | $27.17 | -$4.21 | 65% 128380-68714 (197094) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 8.5¢ | $1.79 | $10.61 | +$8.82 | 63% 41533-24143 (65676) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $19 | $9.9 | -$9.1 | 51% 9385-8985 (18370) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $1.52 | $3.31 | +$1.8 | 46% 39306-46719 (86025) |
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$23.96
Value
$40.45
PnL
+$16.49
Record
49%
79620-83009 (162629)
Invested
$47.06
Value
$36.02
PnL
-$11.05
Record
56%
7744-6020 (13764)
Invested
$31.37
Value
$27.17
PnL
-$4.21
Record
65%
128380-68714 (197094)
ohioism<$100Invested
$1.79
Value
$10.61
PnL
+$8.82
Record
63%
41533-24143 (65676)
Invested
$19
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$9.1
Record
51%
9385-8985 (18370)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.52
Value
$3.31
PnL
+$1.8
Record
46%
39306-46719 (86025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.