Solana Up or Down - November 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 50¢ · $89 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Up
8
Up 75%
$89.37
-$28.8
85.6¢ → 50¢
-42% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $34.63 | $22.46 | -$12.18 | 51% 8411-7930 (16341) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 91.6¢ | $28.19 | $15.54 | -$12.65 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 83.6¢ | $25.35 | $15.32 | -$10.03 | 65% 126454-67593 (194047) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 9.6¢ | $2.31 | $11.84 | +$9.53 | 46% 38677-45770 (84447) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $6.86 | $6.97 | +$0.1 | 61% 96050-60547 (156597) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $11.04 | $6.19 | -$4.85 | 66% 127109-65406 (192515) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $5.94 | $5.97 | +$0.03 | 52% 91321-85769 (177090) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $3.85 | $5.08 | +$1.23 | 55% 18379-14972 (33351) |
Invested
$34.63
Value
$22.46
PnL
-$12.18
Record
51%
8411-7930 (16341)
Invested
$28.19
Value
$15.54
PnL
-$12.65
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
Invested
$25.35
Value
$15.32
PnL
-$10.03
Record
65%
126454-67593 (194047)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$2.31
Value
$11.84
PnL
+$9.53
Record
46%
38677-45770 (84447)
Invested
$6.86
Value
$6.97
PnL
+$0.1
Record
61%
96050-60547 (156597)
Invested
$11.04
Value
$6.19
PnL
-$4.85
Record
66%
127109-65406 (192515)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$5.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
91321-85769 (177090)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$1.23
Record
55%
18379-14972 (33351)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.