Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - October 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $197 held · ended Oct 31

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$197.41

Combined PnL

-$10.58

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$41.55

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$19.1

Down4 traders

Total Value$20.46

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$8.52

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 48.4¢	$91.75	$135.41	+$43.66	52% 8084-7595 (15679)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.4¢	$63.86	$107.58	+$43.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.5¢	$27.89	$27.83	-$0.06
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$22.33	$15.6	-$1.94	65% 125846-67348 (193194)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 83¢	$23.56	$14.34	-$9.23	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 85¢	$19.55	$11.62	-$7.94	49% 78260-81715 (159975)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 17.2¢	$2.35	$6.77	+$4.42	52% 90910-85451 (176361)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$2.7	$5.14	+$2.44	56% 58403-45070 (103473)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.05	58% 51198-37322 (88520)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$1.89	$3.6	+$1.71	66% 126575-65169 (191744)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$91.75

Value

$135.41

PnL

+$43.66

Record

52%

8084-7595 (15679)

Both legs:

Up$63.8648.4¢+$43.72

Down$27.8918.5¢-$0.06

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$22.33

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$1.94

Record

65%

125846-67348 (193194)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$23.56

Value

$14.34

PnL

-$9.23

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$19.55

Value

$11.62

PnL

-$7.94

Record

49%

78260-81715 (159975)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.35

Value

$6.77

PnL

+$4.42

Record

52%

90910-85451 (176361)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.7

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$2.44

Record

56%

58403-45070 (103473)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

51198-37322 (88520)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.89

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.71

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.