Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$398.94
-$64.44
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 67.7¢ | $264.99 | $310.94 | +$45.95 | 52% 8055-7577 (15632) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.7¢ | $210.43 | $310.94 | +$100.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.6¢ | $54.56 | — | -$54.56 | |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 87.2¢ | $85.43 | $68 | -$17.43 | 57% 71318-54356 (125674) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 28.3¢ | $13.09 | — | -$13.09 | 46% 38408-45370 (83778) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 39.2¢ | $32.49 | — | -$31.64 | 64% 24172-13343 (37515) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $15.55 | $20 | +$4.45 | 65% 125844-67348 (193192) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.3¢ | $4.05 | — | -$4.05 | 49% 78195-81703 (159898) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.62 | — | -$2.62 | 58% 38198-27356 (65554) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112359-59057 (171416) |
Invested
$264.99
Value
$310.94
PnL
+$45.95
Record
52%
8055-7577 (15632)
Both legs:
Invested
$85.43
Value
$68
PnL
-$17.43
Record
57%
71318-54356 (125674)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$13.09
Value
—
PnL
-$13.09
Record
46%
38408-45370 (83778)
Invested
$32.49
Value
—
PnL
-$31.64
Record
64%
24172-13343 (37515)
Invested
$15.55
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.45
Record
65%
125844-67348 (193192)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
—
PnL
-$4.05
Record
49%
78195-81703 (159898)
Invested
$2.62
Value
—
PnL
-$2.62
Record
58%
38198-27356 (65554)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112359-59057 (171416)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.