Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$155.02
-$602.58
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 47.3¢ | $488.91 | — | -$488.91 | 52% 8055-7577 (15632) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $79.98 | — | -$79.98 | 46% 38408-45370 (83778) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $124.48 | $122.14 | -$2.34 | 57% 71318-54356 (125674) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.1¢ | $94.23 | $122.14 | +$27.91 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.5¢ | $30.25 | — | -$30.25 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $23.28 | $27.88 | +$4.6 | 63% 52223-31187 (83410) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 72.8¢ | $38.55 | — | -$34.08 | 64% 24172-13343 (37515) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $3.74 | — | -$3.74 | 49% 78195-81703 (159898) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 52% 90876-85429 (176305) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $0.48 | — | -$0.48 | 66% 126538-65157 (191695) |
Invested
$488.91
Value
—
PnL
-$488.91
Record
52%
8055-7577 (15632)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$79.98
Value
—
PnL
-$79.98
Record
46%
38408-45370 (83778)
Invested
$124.48
Value
$122.14
PnL
-$2.34
Record
57%
71318-54356 (125674)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$23.28
Value
$27.88
PnL
+$4.6
Record
63%
52223-31187 (83410)
Invested
$38.55
Value
—
PnL
-$34.08
Record
64%
24172-13343 (37515)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.74
Value
—
PnL
-$3.74
Record
49%
78195-81703 (159898)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
90876-85429 (176305)
Invested
$0.48
Value
—
PnL
-$0.48
Record
66%
126538-65157 (191695)
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