Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$154.57
-$35.86
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 37.5¢ | $68.69 | $100 | +$31.31 | 52% 8055-7577 (15632) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.9¢ | $31.19 | — | -$31.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.5¢ | $37.5 | $100 | +$62.5 | |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 90.6¢ | $34.08 | $37.63 | +$3.55 | 46% 38408-45370 (83778) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 75.2¢ | $23.89 | — | -$23.89 | 57% 71318-54356 (125674) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $25.32 | $16.94 | -$8.38 | 52% 90876-85429 (176305) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 7¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 66% 126538-65157 (191695) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $3.4 | — | -$3.4 | 66% 112359-59057 (171416) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 64% 24172-13343 (37515) |
Invested
$68.69
Value
$100
PnL
+$31.31
Record
52%
8055-7577 (15632)
Both legs:
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$34.08
Value
$37.63
PnL
+$3.55
Record
46%
38408-45370 (83778)
Invested
$23.89
Value
—
PnL
-$23.89
Record
57%
71318-54356 (125674)
Invested
$25.32
Value
$16.94
PnL
-$8.38
Record
52%
90876-85429 (176305)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
66%
126538-65157 (191695)
Invested
$3.4
Value
—
PnL
-$3.4
Record
66%
112359-59057 (171416)
Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
64%
24172-13343 (37515)
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