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Up
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Down
pspspsps5<$100UpDown
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100DownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$110
Combined PnL
-$34.9
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares66
Combined PnL-$44.09
Up2 traders
Total Value$39.37
Total Shares39
Combined PnL+$9.19
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.9¢ | $49.4 | $70.63 | +$21.23 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.9¢ | $33.84 | $70.63 | +$36.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.6¢ | $15.55 | — | -$15.55 | |
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.7¢ | $21.4 | — | -$21.4 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $25.26 | $32.8 | +$7.54 | 46% 38360-45313 (83673) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $26.49 | — | -$20.59 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 63% 52187-31091 (83278) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $4.92 | $6.57 | +$1.65 | 66% 112343-59004 (171347) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$49.4
Value
$70.63
PnL
+$21.23
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Both legs:
Up$33.8447.9¢+$36.79
Down$15.5531.6¢-$15.55
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$21.4
Value
—
PnL
-$21.4
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$25.26
Value
$32.8
PnL
+$7.54
Record
46%
38360-45313 (83673)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$26.49
Value
—
PnL
-$20.59
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
63%
52187-31091 (83278)
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
$6.57
PnL
+$1.65
Record
66%
112343-59004 (171347)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x0e393d41...865a83
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793460000