Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$71.95
-$27.13
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $97.08 | $54.74 | -$42.34 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76¢ | $76 | — | -$76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.5¢ | $21.08 | $54.74 | +$33.66 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $19.75 | — | -$19.75 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $9.86 | — | -$9.86 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $3.78 | — | -$3.78 | 46% 38360-45313 (83673) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $5 | $6.41 | +$1.41 | 66% 112343-59004 (171347) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $1 | $5 | +$4 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $1.75 | $4.6 | +$2.85 | 66% 126437-65111 (191548) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 58% 38145-27331 (65476) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.2 | $1.2 | +$0 | 59% 62464-43615 (106079) |
Invested
$97.08
Value
$54.74
PnL
-$42.34
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.75
Value
—
PnL
-$19.75
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Invested
$9.86
Value
—
PnL
-$9.86
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.78
Value
—
PnL
-$3.78
Record
46%
38360-45313 (83673)
Invested
$5
Value
$6.41
PnL
+$1.41
Record
66%
112343-59004 (171347)
ohioism<$100Invested
$1
Value
$5
PnL
+$4
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$2.85
Record
66%
126437-65111 (191548)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
58%
38145-27331 (65476)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
62464-43615 (106079)
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