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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$861.12

Combined PnL

-$59.18

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares126
Combined PnL-$91.51
Up2 traders
Total Value$106.49
Total Shares106
Combined PnL+$32.33
Down — 75%Up — 25%
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$693.3

Value

$616.5

PnL

-$76.8

Record

52%

7995-7522 (15517)

Both legs:

Up$312.2350.6¢+$304.26
Down$381.0755.1¢-$381.07
UN
uninformedflowwARB<$100
Down

Invested

$181.2

Value

$138.14

PnL

-$43.06

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

Both legs:

Up$77.9456.4¢+$60.2
Down$103.2674.5¢-$103.26
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$63.12

Value

—

PnL

-$63.12

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

AA
aaa221<$100
Up

Invested

$60.91

Value

$80

PnL

+$25.49

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100
Up

Invested

$19.65

Value

$26.49

PnL

+$6.84

Record

63%

52187-31091 (83278)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$8.66

Value

—

PnL

-$8.66

Record

66%

112343-59004 (171347)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$8.1

Value

—

PnL

-$8.1

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$6

Value

—

PnL

-$6

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4.98

Value

—

PnL

-$4.98

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.65

Value

—

PnL

-$0.65

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xd988dcbe...7c253c
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793457600

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$76.8
UN

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$43.06

MayorMamdani

CTR

Down — $0

-$63.12
AA

aaa221

Up — $80

+$25.49

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $26.49

+$6.84
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Down — $0

-$8.66
AS

asdaefef

CTR

Down — $0

-$8.1
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

CTR

Down — $0

-$6
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Down — $0

-$4.98
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.65
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