Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$79.22
-$17.56
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $50.72 | $49.99 | -$0.72 | 52% 7967-7500 (15467) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.6¢ | $21.72 | — | -$21.72 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58¢ | $29 | $49.99 | +$21 | |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 30.7¢ | $8.23 | — | -$8.23 | 46% 38341-45284 (83625) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $13.45 | — | -$13.45 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $10.68 | — | -$10.67 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $1.5 | $10 | +$8.5 | 58% 60765-44349 (105114) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $6.1 | $10 | +$3.9 | 55% 45398-37789 (83187) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $6.83 | $9.23 | +$2.4 | 63% 52172-31048 (83220) |
Invested
$50.72
Value
$49.99
PnL
-$0.72
Record
52%
7967-7500 (15467)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$8.23
Value
—
PnL
-$8.23
Record
46%
38341-45284 (83625)
Invested
$13.45
Value
—
PnL
-$13.45
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Invested
$10.68
Value
—
PnL
-$10.67
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$8.5
Record
58%
60765-44349 (105114)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.9
Record
55%
45398-37789 (83187)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$6.83
Value
$9.23
PnL
+$2.4
Record
63%
52172-31048 (83220)
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