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Down
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Down
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100DownDownUp
pspspsps5<$100Up
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
2 arb excluded
Total Value
$257.42
Combined PnL
-$17.01
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares102
Combined PnL-$56.07
Up2 traders
Total Value$88.1
Total Shares88
Combined PnL+$39.06
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 46.4¢ | $115.53 | $117.89 | +$2.35 | 52% 7967-7500 (15467) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.4¢ | $60.23 | — | -$60.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.9¢ | $55.3 | $117.89 | +$62.59 | |
MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $104.32 | $51.43 | -$52.89 | 55% 45398-37789 (83187) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.3¢ | $63.45 | — | -$63.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.5¢ | $40.87 | $51.43 | +$10.56 | |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.9¢ | $11.89 | — | -$11.89 | 63% 52172-31048 (83220) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $44.18 | — | -$44.18 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 81.9¢ | $36.85 | $45 | +$8.15 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 28.3¢ | $12.2 | $43.1 | +$30.9 | 46% 38341-45284 (83625) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$115.53
Value
$117.89
PnL
+$2.35
Record
52%
7967-7500 (15467)
Both legs:
Down$60.2346.4¢-$60.23
Up$55.346.9¢+$62.59
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$104.32
Value
$51.43
PnL
-$52.89
Record
55%
45398-37789 (83187)
Both legs:
Down$63.4577.3¢-$63.45
Up$40.8779.5¢+$10.56
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$11.89
Value
—
PnL
-$11.89
Record
63%
52172-31048 (83220)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$44.18
Value
—
PnL
-$44.18
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$36.85
Value
$45
PnL
+$8.15
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$12.2
Value
$43.1
PnL
+$30.9
Record
46%
38341-45284 (83625)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5d55ee3e...2a63fc
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793449800