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Down
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Down
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100DownUpUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$114.81
Combined PnL
-$22.51
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares47
Combined PnL-$28.35
Up2 traders
Total Value$24.56
Total Shares25
Combined PnL+$5.84
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 46.9¢ | $94.72 | $90.25 | -$4.47 | 52% 7945-7473 (15418) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.9¢ | $50.99 | — | -$50.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $43.73 | $90.25 | +$46.52 | |
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $24.01 | — | -$24.01 | 55% 45345-37754 (83099) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $1.79 | — | -$1.79 | 63% 52154-31006 (83160) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $16.83 | $17 | +$0.17 | 66% 126346-65068 (191414) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.89 | $7.56 | +$5.67 | 52% 90753-85289 (176042) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 58% 51106-37241 (88347) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$94.72
Value
$90.25
PnL
-$4.47
Record
52%
7945-7473 (15418)
Both legs:
Down$50.9946.9¢-$50.99
Up$43.7348.5¢+$46.52
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$24.01
Value
—
PnL
-$24.01
Record
55%
45345-37754 (83099)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1.79
Value
—
PnL
-$1.79
Record
63%
52154-31006 (83160)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$16.83
Value
$17
PnL
+$0.17
Record
66%
126346-65068 (191414)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$1.89
Value
$7.56
PnL
+$5.67
Record
52%
90753-85289 (176042)
PB
PBot-6CTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
58%
51106-37241 (88347)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x97f82e4e...d3f3dd
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793448600