Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$294.88
-$13.34
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $141.66 | $244.73 | +$103.07 | 52% 7885-7424 (15309) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42¢ | $102.69 | $244.73 | +$142.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.2¢ | $38.97 | — | -$38.97 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $39.05 | — | -$39.05 | 63% 52124-30942 (83066) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 13.8¢ | $3.06 | $22.19 | +$19.13 | 52% 90691-85227 (175918) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.2¢ | $12.95 | — | -$12.95 | 64% 23828-13134 (36962) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $2.52 | $19.38 | +$16.86 | 61% 95305-60157 (155462) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $5.92 | $8.58 | +$2.66 | 66% 126252-65031 (191283) |
Invested
$141.66
Value
$244.73
PnL
+$103.07
Record
52%
7885-7424 (15309)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$39.05
Value
—
PnL
-$39.05
Record
63%
52124-30942 (83066)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$22.19
PnL
+$19.13
Record
52%
90691-85227 (175918)
Invested
$12.95
Value
—
PnL
-$12.95
Record
64%
23828-13134 (36962)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$19.38
PnL
+$16.86
Record
61%
95305-60157 (155462)
Invested
$5.92
Value
$8.58
PnL
+$2.66
Record
66%
126252-65031 (191283)
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