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DownDownUp
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100DownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$141.94
Combined PnL
-$45.25
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares70
Combined PnL-$48.77
Up1 trader
Total Value$31
Total Shares31
Combined PnL+$3.51
Down — 75%Up — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 40.8¢ | $107.52 | $110.94 | +$3.42 | 52% 7885-7424 (15309) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.8¢ | $66.16 | — | -$66.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.3¢ | $41.37 | $110.94 | +$69.57 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $32.91 | — | -$32.91 | 64% 23828-13134 (36962) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 85.1¢ | $27.49 | $31 | +$3.51 | 65% 125617-67257 (192874) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $10.86 | — | -$10.86 | 63% 52124-30942 (83066) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 58% 51083-37220 (88303) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$107.52
Value
$110.94
PnL
+$3.42
Record
52%
7885-7424 (15309)
Both legs:
Down$66.1640.8¢-$66.16
Up$41.3737.3¢+$69.57
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$32.91
Value
—
PnL
-$32.91
Record
64%
23828-13134 (36962)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$27.49
Value
$31
PnL
+$3.51
Record
65%
125617-67257 (192874)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$10.86
Value
—
PnL
-$10.86
Record
63%
52124-30942 (83066)
PB
PBot-6CTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
51083-37220 (88303)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x179ef910...a33e6e
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793431200