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DownUp
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100UpDownDown
pspspsps5<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$244.13
Combined PnL
-$29.55
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares83
Combined PnL-$31.38
Down3 traders
Total Value$22.17
Total Shares22
Combined PnL+$1.83
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 30.9¢ | $135.56 | $221.96 | +$86.39 | 51% 7854-7405 (15259) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.9¢ | $68.61 | $221.96 | +$153.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.9¢ | $66.95 | — | -$66.95 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $32.38 | — | -$30.38 | 64% 23759-13098 (36857) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 63% 52106-30898 (83004) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $15.81 | $17 | +$1.19 | 66% 126202-65005 (191207) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $5 | +$0.5 | 65% 125573-67230 (192803) |
pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $0.03 | $0.17 | +$0.14 | 46% 38260-45186 (83446) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$135.56
Value
$221.96
PnL
+$86.39
Record
51%
7854-7405 (15259)
Both legs:
Down$68.6130.9¢+$153.34
Up$66.9541.9¢-$66.95
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$32.38
Value
—
PnL
-$30.38
Record
64%
23759-13098 (36857)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
63%
52106-30898 (83004)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$15.81
Value
$17
PnL
+$1.19
Record
66%
126202-65005 (191207)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
65%
125573-67230 (192803)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.17
PnL
+$0.14
Record
46%
38260-45186 (83446)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4f5f0ab6...e183ee
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793429400