Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$168.81
-$1.79
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $108.74 | $108.19 | -$0.56 | 51% 7743-7307 (15050) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.1¢ | $87.7 | $108.19 | +$20.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.5¢ | $21.04 | — | -$21.04 | |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $2.91 | — | -$2.91 | 62% 43883-26903 (70786) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.1¢ | $5.28 | — | -$5.28 | 63% 52043-30715 (82758) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $24.5 | $31.78 | +$7.28 | 64% 23528-12966 (36494) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $17.04 | $17.63 | +$0.59 | 46% 38184-45085 (83269) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.1¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 52% 90518-85062 (175580) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97.1¢ | $10.89 | $11.21 | +$0.32 | 66% 126030-64913 (190943) |
Invested
$108.74
Value
$108.19
PnL
-$0.56
Record
51%
7743-7307 (15050)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.91
Value
—
PnL
-$2.91
Record
62%
43883-26903 (70786)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$5.28
Value
—
PnL
-$5.28
Record
63%
52043-30715 (82758)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$31.78
PnL
+$7.28
Record
64%
23528-12966 (36494)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$17.04
Value
$17.63
PnL
+$0.59
Record
46%
38184-45085 (83269)
Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
52%
90518-85062 (175580)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$11.21
PnL
+$0.32
Record
66%
126030-64913 (190943)
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