Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 57%
1 arb excluded
$101.11
-$26.8
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $53.31 | $54.11 | +$0.8 | 51% 7743-7307 (15050) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.4¢ | $30.5 | $54.11 | +$23.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.9¢ | $22.81 | — | -$22.81 | |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $24.39 | $23 | -$1.39 | 52% 90518-85062 (175580) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $17.82 | $18 | +$0.18 | 61% 95112-60031 (155143) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.7¢ | $13.8 | — | -$13.8 | 55% 17960-14549 (32509) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $3.09 | — | -$3.09 | 46% 38184-45085 (83269) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.2¢ | $4.96 | — | -$4.96 | 63% 52043-30715 (82758) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 66% 126030-64913 (190943) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $3.8 | — | -$3.8 | 49% 78059-81564 (159623) |
Invested
$53.31
Value
$54.11
PnL
+$0.8
Record
51%
7743-7307 (15050)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.39
Value
$23
PnL
-$1.39
Record
52%
90518-85062 (175580)
Invested
$17.82
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.18
Record
61%
95112-60031 (155143)
Invested
$13.8
Value
—
PnL
-$13.8
Record
55%
17960-14549 (32509)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.09
Value
—
PnL
-$3.09
Record
46%
38184-45085 (83269)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.96
Value
—
PnL
-$4.96
Record
63%
52043-30715 (82758)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
66%
126030-64913 (190943)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.8
Value
—
PnL
-$3.8
Record
49%
78059-81564 (159623)
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