Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
9
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$244.14
-$91.77
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 24.9Β’ | $127.55 | $142.83 | +$15.28 | 51% 7743-7307 (15050) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 40.9Β’ | $58.36 | $142.83 | +$84.47 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 24.9Β’ | $69.19 | β | -$69.19 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 45Β’ | $54 | β | -$54 | 48% 23338-25669 (49007) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.5Β’ | $12.24 | β | -$12.24 | 66% 112280-58767 (171047) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 83Β’ | $40.7 | $39.64 | -$1.06 | 66% 126030-64913 (190943) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 51.7Β’ | $43.19 | $36.4 | +$2.6 | 64% 23528-12966 (36494) |
![]() UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 16.7Β’ | $10.2 | β | -$10.2 | 63% 52043-30715 (82758) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 83.6Β’ | $24.18 | $25.27 | +$1.09 | 61% 95112-60031 (155143) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 54Β’ | $11.05 | β | -$11.05 | 55% 17960-14549 (32509) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 44Β’ | $4.4 | β | -$4.4 | 46% 38184-45085 (83269) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.1Β’ | $2.5 | β | -$2.5 | 52% 90518-85062 (175580) |
Invested
$127.55
Value
$142.83
PnL
+$15.28
Record
51%
7743-7307 (15050)
Both legs:
Invested
$54
Value
β
PnL
-$54
Record
48%
23338-25669 (49007)
Invested
$12.24
Value
β
PnL
-$12.24
Record
66%
112280-58767 (171047)
Invested
$40.7
Value
$39.64
PnL
-$1.06
Record
66%
126030-64913 (190943)
Invested
$43.19
Value
$36.4
PnL
+$2.6
Record
64%
23528-12966 (36494)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$10.2
Value
β
PnL
-$10.2
Record
63%
52043-30715 (82758)
Invested
$24.18
Value
$25.27
PnL
+$1.09
Record
61%
95112-60031 (155143)
Invested
$11.05
Value
β
PnL
-$11.05
Record
55%
17960-14549 (32509)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
β
PnL
-$4.4
Record
46%
38184-45085 (83269)
Invested
$2.5
Value
β
PnL
-$2.5
Record
52%
90518-85062 (175580)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRDown β $0
antsaslyku
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
Up β $39.64
aaa221
Up β $36.4

UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown β $0
asidjasiodja
Up β $25.27
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown β $0

pspspsps5
CTRDown β $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown β $0