Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
5
Down 80%
3 arb excluded
$276.39
$14.63
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 32.8¢ | $108.32 | $91.64 | -$16.68 | 51% 7681-7235 (14916) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.8¢ | $102.54 | — | -$102.54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 6.3¢ | $5.78 | $91.64 | +$85.86 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Upavg 29.6¢ | $36.84 | $84.04 | +$47.2 | 63% 52008-30666 (82674) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 10.5¢ | $11.94 | — | -$11.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.6¢ | $24.9 | $84.04 | +$59.14 | |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 92.8¢ | $48.57 | $56.54 | +$7.97 | 46% 38138-45037 (83175) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1¢ | $0.57 | $56.54 | +$55.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 92.8¢ | $48 | — | -$48 | |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 13.5¢ | $5.98 | $44.17 | +$38.19 | 57% 71009-54091 (125100) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $12.87 | — | -$12.87 | 52% 90443-84945 (175388) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $4.05 | — | -$4.05 | 61% 95030-59937 (154967) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $3.6 | — | -$3.6 | 66% 125935-64835 (190770) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $3.04 | — | -$3.04 | 64% 23388-12902 (36290) |
Invested
$108.32
Value
$91.64
PnL
-$16.68
Record
51%
7681-7235 (14916)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$36.84
Value
$84.04
PnL
+$47.2
Record
63%
52008-30666 (82674)
Both legs:
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$48.57
Value
$56.54
PnL
+$7.97
Record
46%
38138-45037 (83175)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.98
Value
$44.17
PnL
+$38.19
Record
57%
71009-54091 (125100)
Invested
$12.87
Value
—
PnL
-$12.87
Record
52%
90443-84945 (175388)
Invested
$4.05
Value
—
PnL
-$4.05
Record
61%
95030-59937 (154967)
Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$3.6
Record
66%
125935-64835 (190770)
Invested
$3.04
Value
—
PnL
-$3.04
Record
64%
23388-12902 (36290)
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