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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$223.01

Combined PnL

-$137.83

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$124.66

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$30.59

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares547

Combined PnL-$168.42

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 39.6¢	$119.1	$98.35	-$20.75	51% 7596-7161 (14757)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.5¢	$47.67	$98.35	+$50.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.6¢	$71.43	—	-$71.43
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 98¢	$88.2	$90	+$1.8	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 45.1¢	$63.2	—	-$63.2	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 53.1¢	$56.2	—	-$56.2	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 8¢	$1.97	$24.66	+$22.69	56% 58073-44827 (102900)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 6.8¢	$5.22	—	-$5.22	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$23.35	—	-$23.35	63% 51921-30603 (82524)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$3.28	—	-$3.28	52% 90329-84819 (175148)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 1.2¢	$2.94	—	-$2.94	61% 94915-59834 (154749)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$9.85	—	-$9.85	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 39¢	$3.9	$10	+$6.1	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$4.38	—	-$4.38	64% 23206-12791 (35997)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$119.1

Value

$98.35

PnL

-$20.75

Record

51%

7596-7161 (14757)

Both legs:

Up$47.6748.5¢+$50.67

Down$71.4339.6¢-$71.43

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$88.2

Value

$90

PnL

+$1.8

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$63.2

Value

—

PnL

-$63.2

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$56.2

Value

—

PnL

-$56.2

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$1.97

Value

$24.66

PnL

+$22.69

Record

56%

58073-44827 (102900)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

—

PnL

-$5.22

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$23.35

Value

—

PnL

-$23.35

Record

63%

51921-30603 (82524)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$3.28

Value

—

PnL

-$3.28

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$2.94

Value

—

PnL

-$2.94

Record

61%

94915-59834 (154749)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

—

PnL

-$9.85

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.1

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

Invested

$4.38

Value

—

PnL

-$4.38

Record

64%

23206-12791 (35997)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb120190c...867c49

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1793371500

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $90

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $24.66

asdaefef

Down — $0

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Down — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $0

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