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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$109.32
Combined PnL
-$8.65
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares75
Combined PnL-$13.76
Down2 traders
Total Value$47.1
Total Shares47
Combined PnL+$5.11
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $62.12 | $62.22 | +$0.11 | 51% 7530-7094 (14624) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.7¢ | $33.08 | — | -$33.08 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.7¢ | $29.04 | $62.22 | +$33.18 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $10.21 | — | -$10.21 | 64% 23076-12710 (35786) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 88.6¢ | $32.79 | $37 | +$4.21 | 58% 37847-27084 (64931) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $9.2 | $10.1 | +$0.9 | 55% 17762-14385 (32147) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 61% 94821-59772 (154593) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $1.87 | — | -$1.87 | 52% 90236-84735 (174971) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$62.12
Value
$62.22
PnL
+$0.11
Record
51%
7530-7094 (14624)
Both legs:
Up$33.0819.7¢-$33.08
Down$29.0446.7¢+$33.18
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$10.21
Value
—
PnL
-$10.21
Record
64%
23076-12710 (35786)
0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100Invested
$32.79
Value
$37
PnL
+$4.21
Record
58%
37847-27084 (64931)
KA
Kathod-Shi-14<$100Invested
$9.2
Value
$10.1
PnL
+$0.9
Record
55%
17762-14385 (32147)
AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
61%
94821-59772 (154593)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.87
Value
—
PnL
-$1.87
Record
52%
90236-84735 (174971)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x7cc3f154...30eebb
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793358900