Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$114.9
-$65.81
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 29.4¢ | $44.42 | $69.09 | +$24.68 | 51% 7486-7050 (14536) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.4¢ | $31.07 | — | -$31.07 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.3¢ | $13.35 | $69.09 | +$55.74 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 87.9¢ | $65.95 | — | -$65.95 | 48% 23252-25544 (48796) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $18.8 | $22.35 | +$3.55 | 64% 22980-12672 (35652) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 42.1¢ | $9.78 | $13.12 | +$3.34 | 52% 90179-84671 (174850) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $12.66 | $10.33 | -$2.33 | 65% 125073-66927 (192000) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $4.28 | — | -$4.28 | 61% 94766-59706 (154472) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 59% 62188-43365 (105553) |
Invested
$44.42
Value
$69.09
PnL
+$24.68
Record
51%
7486-7050 (14536)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.95
Value
—
PnL
-$65.95
Record
48%
23252-25544 (48796)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$22.35
PnL
+$3.55
Record
64%
22980-12672 (35652)
Invested
$9.78
Value
$13.12
PnL
+$3.34
Record
52%
90179-84671 (174850)
Invested
$12.66
Value
$10.33
PnL
-$2.33
Record
65%
125073-66927 (192000)
Invested
$4.28
Value
—
PnL
-$4.28
Record
61%
94766-59706 (154472)
Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
59%
62188-43365 (105553)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.