Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$279.7
-$79.91
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.3¢ | $156.52 | $195.22 | +$38.7 | 51% 7416-7015 (14431) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.3¢ | $88.43 | $195.22 | +$106.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.5¢ | $68.08 | — | -$68.08 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $36.63 | $37 | +$0.37 | 58% 37772-27004 (64776) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 26.9¢ | $17.06 | — | -$17.06 | 63% 51772-30494 (82266) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $29.7 | $30.94 | +$1.24 | 65% 124925-66828 (191753) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 86.8¢ | $52.26 | — | -$52.26 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $15.28 | — | -$15.28 | 55% 44748-37210 (81958) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $3.47 | $16.55 | +$13.08 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 66% 112049-58418 (170467) |
Invested
$156.52
Value
$195.22
PnL
+$38.7
Record
51%
7416-7015 (14431)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.63
Value
$37
PnL
+$0.37
Record
58%
37772-27004 (64776)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$17.06
Value
—
PnL
-$17.06
Record
63%
51772-30494 (82266)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$30.94
PnL
+$1.24
Record
65%
124925-66828 (191753)
Invested
$52.26
Value
—
PnL
-$52.26
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$15.28
Value
—
PnL
-$15.28
Record
55%
44748-37210 (81958)
Invested
$3.47
Value
$16.55
PnL
+$13.08
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
66%
112049-58418 (170467)
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