Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
8
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$145.69
-$47.2
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4Β’ | $77.14 | $95.93 | +$18.79 | 51% 7416-7015 (14431) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.4Β’ | $47.38 | $95.93 | +$48.55 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 40.2Β’ | $29.76 | β | -$29.76 | |
![]() wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.8Β’ | $30 | β | -$30 | 58% 12615-9290 (21905) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 61.2Β’ | $21.06 | β | -$21.06 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 26.7Β’ | $16 | β | -$3.85 | 48% 23240-25517 (48757) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9Β’ | $12.65 | $12.66 | +$0.01 | 59% 62167-43333 (105500) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 66.2Β’ | $9.96 | $15.04 | +$5.08 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 58.5Β’ | $6.99 | $11.96 | +$4.97 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 73.8Β’ | $7.45 | $10.1 | +$2.65 | 55% 44748-37210 (81958) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 78Β’ | $5 | β | -$5 | 66% 112049-58418 (170467) |
Invested
$77.14
Value
$95.93
PnL
+$18.79
Record
51%
7416-7015 (14431)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$30
Value
β
PnL
-$30
Record
58%
12615-9290 (21905)
Invested
$21.06
Value
β
PnL
-$21.06
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
Invested
$16
Value
β
PnL
-$3.85
Record
48%
23240-25517 (48757)
Invested
$12.65
Value
$12.66
PnL
+$0.01
Record
59%
62167-43333 (105500)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$15.04
PnL
+$5.08
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$11.96
PnL
+$4.97
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.45
Value
$10.1
PnL
+$2.65
Record
55%
44748-37210 (81958)
Invested
$5
Value
β
PnL
-$5
Record
66%
112049-58418 (170467)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded

wowitsamazing
CTRDown β $0
aaa221
CTRDown β $0
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRDown β $0
0x50f7
Up β $12.66
asidjasiodja
Up β $15.04
dvasdkasodk
Up β $11.96

MayorMamdani
Up β $10.1
antsaslyku
CTRDown β $0