Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$280.99
-$22.1
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $261.74 | $242.45 | -$19.28 | 51% 7342-6974 (14316) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.2¢ | $89.48 | — | -$89.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71¢ | $172.26 | $242.45 | +$70.2 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $23.36 | $26.53 | +$3.17 | 63% 51715-30440 (82155) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $15.34 | $12 | -$3.34 | 55% 44682-37145 (81827) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.3¢ | $5.94 | — | -$5.94 | 61% 94613-59581 (154194) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $9.86 | — | -$9.86 | 66% 112010-58363 (170373) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $5.64 | — | -$5.64 | 64% 22724-12523 (35247) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $0.5 | — | -$0.5 | 52% 90032-84524 (174556) |
Invested
$261.74
Value
$242.45
PnL
-$19.28
Record
51%
7342-6974 (14316)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$23.36
Value
$26.53
PnL
+$3.17
Record
63%
51715-30440 (82155)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$15.34
Value
$12
PnL
-$3.34
Record
55%
44682-37145 (81827)
Invested
$5.94
Value
—
PnL
-$5.94
Record
61%
94613-59581 (154194)
Invested
$9.86
Value
—
PnL
-$9.86
Record
66%
112010-58363 (170373)
Invested
$5.64
Value
—
PnL
-$5.64
Record
64%
22724-12523 (35247)
Invested
$0.5
Value
—
PnL
-$0.5
Record
52%
90032-84524 (174556)
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