Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
6
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$314.95
-$57.11
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 75.1Β’ | $205.85 | $173.02 | -$32.83 | 51% 7317-6947 (14264) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 75.1Β’ | $129.88 | $173.02 | +$43.13 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 42.4Β’ | $75.96 | β | -$75.96 | |
![]() UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.6Β’ | $20.66 | β | -$20.66 | 63% 51691-30414 (82105) |
![]() BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $57.16 | $57.74 | +$0.58 | 74% 102371-36367 (138738) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 82.4Β’ | $49.44 | β | -$49.44 | 64% 22669-12483 (35152) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 66.3Β’ | $35.93 | $54.19 | +$18.26 | 66% 111990-58338 (170328) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $29.7 | $30 | +$0.3 | 58% 37705-26921 (64626) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 86Β’ | $6.15 | β | -$6.15 | 56% 57846-44687 (102533) |
Invested
$205.85
Value
$173.02
PnL
-$32.83
Record
51%
7317-6947 (14264)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$20.66
Value
β
PnL
-$20.66
Record
63%
51691-30414 (82105)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$57.16
Value
$57.74
PnL
+$0.58
Record
74%
102371-36367 (138738)
Invested
$49.44
Value
β
PnL
-$49.44
Record
64%
22669-12483 (35152)
Invested
$35.93
Value
$54.19
PnL
+$18.26
Record
66%
111990-58338 (170328)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.3
Record
58%
37705-26921 (64626)
Invested
$6.15
Value
β
PnL
-$6.15
Record
56%
57846-44687 (102533)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded

UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp β $0

BoneOhio
Down β $57.74
aaa221
CTRUp β $0
antsaslyku
Down β $54.19
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down β $30
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp β $0