Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
5
Down 80%
2 arb excluded
$144.49
-$26.93
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $91.55 | $75.75 | -$15.8 | 51% 7317-6947 (14264) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.9¢ | $38.25 | — | -$38.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.4¢ | $53.3 | $75.75 | +$22.45 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Upavg 28.6¢ | $21.58 | $63.74 | +$42.16 | 63% 51691-30414 (82105) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 5.5¢ | $3.36 | — | -$3.36 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.6¢ | $18.22 | $63.74 | +$45.52 | |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.9¢ | $9.45 | — | -$9.45 | 52% 89996-84488 (174484) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.9¢ | $10.68 | — | -$10.68 | 66% 111990-58338 (170328) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.2¢ | $6.05 | — | -$6.05 | 61% 94573-59553 (154126) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $5 | +$4.95 | 62% 43714-26712 (70426) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $10.13 | — | -$5.7 | 64% 22669-12483 (35152) |
Invested
$91.55
Value
$75.75
PnL
-$15.8
Record
51%
7317-6947 (14264)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$21.58
Value
$63.74
PnL
+$42.16
Record
63%
51691-30414 (82105)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.45
Value
—
PnL
-$9.45
Record
52%
89996-84488 (174484)
Invested
$10.68
Value
—
PnL
-$10.68
Record
66%
111990-58338 (170328)
Invested
$6.05
Value
—
PnL
-$6.05
Record
61%
94573-59553 (154126)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
$5
PnL
+$4.95
Record
62%
43714-26712 (70426)
Invested
$10.13
Value
—
PnL
-$5.7
Record
64%
22669-12483 (35152)
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