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pspspsps5ARB<$100UpDownDownUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$84.42
Combined PnL
-$4.62
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares109
Combined PnL-$5.18
Up1 trader
Total Value$14.06
Total Shares14
Combined PnL+$0.56
Down — 75%Up — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Upavg 92.3¢ | $66.97 | $70.36 | +$3.39 | 46% 38045-44903 (82948) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 2¢ | $2.04 | — | -$2.04 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 92.3¢ | $64.93 | $70.36 | +$5.43 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $3.13 | — | -$3.13 | 57% 70359-53462 (123821) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 51% 7193-6839 (14032) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $13.5 | $14.06 | +$0.56 | 65% 22438-12338 (34776) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$66.97
Value
$70.36
PnL
+$3.39
Record
46%
38045-44903 (82948)
Both legs:
Down$2.042¢-$2.04
Up$64.9392.3¢+$5.43
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$3.13
Value
—
PnL
-$3.13
Record
57%
70359-53462 (123821)
PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
51%
7193-6839 (14032)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$13.5
Value
$14.06
PnL
+$0.56
Record
65%
22438-12338 (34776)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf26a0e3f...e354cc
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793281800